Akihabara News (Tokyo) — Despite setbacks linked to heavy regulation, the pandemic, and electoral politics, some experts within the gambling industry still believe that Integrated Resorts (IR) including casinos will have a bright future in Japan.
In an exclusive interview with Akihabara News, Brendan Bussmann, director of government affairs at Global Market Advisors, who has been tracking Japan’s IR policies for about seventeen years, predicted that the current policies will roll forward.
“I think right now things will continue the course that they are,” he states. “I think the process right now stays on track.”
Nevertheless, he can also foresee scenarios related to the Covid pandemic or national elections that could change that verdict.
Bussmann acknowledges that the electoral defeat of the IR plans in Yokohama was a significant blow, first of all because the city had long been regarded as a prime candidate for IR development, and also because it seems to leave eastern Japan without any IRs that can serve as a hub for future tourism.
“Tokyo could still raise its hand,” he ventures, but that would need to occur very soon because the application timeline is now quite challenging.
Bussmann’s view is that the electoral defeat in Yokohama relates to a failure to effectively educate public opinion about the benefits and the true nature of IRs. Too many people, he thinks, imagine Hollywood movies like Casino which portray a bygone era of the gambling industry in Las Vegas.
He does foresee possible difficulties for the Japanese IRs, but these relate mainly to the tightly-restrictive regulatory structure such as the 3% limit of the casino floor area in relation to the full IR facility. He predicts that in some of the western Japan IRs “there’s going to be more demand than supply in that casino floor.”
He also notes that the taxation system may cause difficulties, with not only due to the high 30% tax rate on the IR profits, but also because of a series of other taxes calculated in a manner that is still not entirely transparent.
On the whole, however, Bussmann remains an enthusiastic advocate for the IR business model, which he believes will have a bright future even in the post-Covid era. He calls it “IR 2.0.”
“There will be a next version of IRs and they will be good, strong facilities,” he predicts. “I still think IRs are a great vehicle to drive tourism, to drive investment, drive job creation in the Japanese market.”
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