Akihabara News (Tokyo) — The official campaigning period began yesterday for the August 22 Yokohama mayoral election, and the question of whether or not to build an Integrated Resort (IR) including a casino at Yamashita Pier is the top issue in the race.
Public opinion polls have long been clear that most of the local public opposes incumbent Mayor Fumiko Hayashi’s initiative to build an IR, but the anti-casino forces have also proven unable to unify their efforts, and no fewer than six candidates opposing the construction have entered the race. This entails the prospect that Hayashi could win the race simply because her opponents have split the vote among themselves.
But with eight total candidates in the Yokohama mayoral race, it is also possible, though unlikely, that no candidate will reach the necessary 25% voting threshold. Without that, a runoff would be held in which the remaining anti-casino candidate(s) would have the clear advantage.
Below is a brief survey of the eight candidates in the race, divided into what we see as being the Top Tier candidates who seem to have a reasonable chance of being elected mayor and the Other Candidates who appear to be long-shots. They will be presented in the order of likely electoral strength, as far as we can determine it.
TOP TIER
Fumiko Hayashi (75) – Incumbent Mayor Hayashi should have been headed to defeat in this election because of the disingenuous and anti-democratic manner in which she has handled the IR issue in the past few years, but the fact that all of the pro-IR forces can be expected to line up behind her while the anti-casino forces may splinter behind multiple candidates gives her an open lane to victory even with something like 35-40% of the vote. Her campaign may also be well financed, since she can depend on strong support from the outspokenly pro-IR Yokohama Chamber of Commerce & Industry. She is also likely to split the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito vote with Hachiro Okonogi, though the proportion of that split remains to be seen.
Takeharu Yamanaka (48) – Former Yokohama City University Professor Yamanaka is the closest thing to an anti-casino unity candidate in the race. He was hand picked by Kenji Eda of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, and will have not only his party’s support, but also that of the Japan Communist Party, Yokohama Harbor Resort Association Chairman Yukio Fujiki (the so-called “Don of Yokohama”), and the organizers of last year’s anti-casino referendum movement who now go under the name Yokohama Citizens’ Association to Bring to Power an Anti-Casino Mayor. That seems to guarantee that Yamanaka will at least be one of the top finishers, but the question is whether this man with no political experience can out-campaign the seasoned professionals he’ll be facing and be seen as a credible mayor by the general public.
Hachiro Okonogi (56) – Former National Public Safety Commission Chairman Hachiro Okonogi’s entry into the race should have brought down the curtains on Hayashi’s ability to run, since he was the head of the ruling party chapter of Kanagawa Prefecture and has the personal endorsement of Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga. But his decision to run on an anti-casino platform—while it may have seemed clever at the time—backfired in the short term. Okonogi did not prepare his political ground well, and many Yokohama conservatives rebelled against the senior party executives who had counseled backing him, since they had already expended so much of their political capital to support the unpopular IR initiative. Okonogi basically has the opposite problem from Yamanaka—he has the resume and mountains of political experience, but it’s not exactly clear who will support him. As noted above, he can expect some proportion of Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito voters behind him, but it’s not clear if that will be enough.
OTHER CANDIDATES
Yasuo Tanaka (65) – As a former governor of Nagano Prefecture and a nationally-known politician, Yasuo Tanaka has a chance to do well, especially if Yamanaka fails to consolidate the anti-casino segment of the general public. He has the skills and experience, but as far as can be seen, there’s no particular group that he can rely upon for support.
Shigefumi Matsuzawa (63) – Pretty much everything just said about Yasuo Tanaka also applies to Matsuzawa. He has the resume, but no clear base of support for his anti-casino message. What may help him, however, is that he is a former governor of Kanagawa Prefecture, so he may have the local contacts that Tanaka does not. Still, like Tanaka, he may been seen by many as something of a media-seeking gadfly.
Masataka Ota (75) – The first person to declare his candidacy in this election, Ota has the benefit of being an experienced member of the Yokohama City Council, and he knows the local issues well. But his own Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan did not take his candidacy seriously and never really considered backing him. That doesn’t speak well to his electoral chances.
Mineyuki Fukuda (57) – As the only pro-IR candidate in the race other than Mayor Hayashi, this former House of Representatives lawmaker could theoretically be positioned to pick up support if she stumbles or has a health crisis. There’s no sign of that happening, however, and for various historical reasons he’s unlikely to be trusted by the conservative ruling party. He doesn’t appear to have any viable path to victory.
Yoshikazu Tsubokura (70) – This local businessman rounds out the field, but it is difficult to see his anti-casino candidacy gaining much traction in a field crowded with more experienced and much more famous figures.
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